Since I like probability questions, and tttpp brought it up, I figured it might be interesting to calculate how likely you are to lose on the first turn in Forbidden Island, because Fool’s Landing sinks into the abyss. This question is only interested in figuring the odds of losing the game during the first players turn. It would be slightly more difficult to figure the odds of losing during the first round, where each player has taken one turn at most. If this question gets enough attention, I might decide to ask that question and figure out the odds. To figure out the odds of losing, you will need to calculate the following:
- What are the odds that the first player cannot shore up Fool’s Landing? (depends upon the first player’s character, their starting location, and Fool’s Landing location)
- What are the odds that no player has received a Sandbag/Helicopter (depends upon number of players)
- What are the odds that a Waters Rise card is drawn?
- What are the odds that Fool’s Landing is redrawn after Waters Rise? (difficultly level effects this)
What are the odds range of losing on the first turn for a 2-4 Player game? Calculate each individual component separately, and then provide a range of maximum/minimum odds of losing on the first turn based upon the individual components above. Assume the following:
- The all players will attempt to shore up Fool’s Landing. (use Sandbags/Helicopter)
- The default island map is used.
- The first player and their character are randomly determined, per the rules.
- Ignore the odds of losing because a player sinks into the abyss. (optional:)
- Ignore the odds of losing because both tiles for a particular treasure sink into the abyss. (optional)
Note: Calculate this if you want, but I am not uninterested in the minimal effect on the result of losing first turn.