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  • How likely are you to lose because Fool’s Landing sinks into the abyss?


    Since I like probability questions, and tttpp brought it up, I figured it might be interesting to calculate how likely you are to lose on the first turn in Forbidden Island, because Fool’s Landing sinks into the abyss. This question is only interested in figuring the odds of losing the game during the first players turn. It would be slightly more difficult to figure the odds of losing during the first round, where each player has taken one turn at most. If this question gets enough attention, I might decide to ask that question and figure out the odds. To figure out the odds of losing, you will need to calculate the following:

    • What are the odds that the first player cannot shore up Fool’s Landing? (depends upon the first player’s character, their starting location, and Fool’s Landing location)
    • What are the odds that no player has received a Sandbag/Helicopter (depends upon number of players)
    • What are the odds that a Waters Rise card is drawn?
    • What are the odds that Fool’s Landing is redrawn after Waters Rise? (difficultly level effects this)

    What are the odds range of losing on the first turn for a 2-4 Player game? Calculate each individual component separately, and then provide a range of maximum/minimum odds of losing on the first turn based upon the individual components above. Assume the following:

    • The all players will attempt to shore up Fool’s Landing. (use Sandbags/Helicopter)
    • The default island map is used.
    • The first player and their character are randomly determined, per the rules.
    • Ignore the odds of losing because a player sinks into the abyss. (optional:)
    • Ignore the odds of losing because both tiles for a particular treasure sink into the abyss. (optional)

    Note: Calculate this if you want, but I am not uninterested in the minimal effect on the result of losing first turn.



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  • magic the gathering – What happens if I lose control of a creature affected by Act of Treason?

    magic the gathering – What happens if I lose control of a creature affected by Act of Treason?


    No, player C will keep controlling it.

    Both spells have continuous effects which modify the creature’s characteristics in Layer 2, and the one with the latest timestamp wins. It doesn’t matter that Act of Treason is only temporary (and one could say Donate doesn’t have a duration at all):

    611.2a A continuous effect generated by the resolution of a spell or ability lasts as long as stated by the spell or ability creating it (such as “until end of turn”). If no duration is stated, it lasts until the end of the game.

    Relevant parts of the layer system:

    613.1b Layer 2: Control-changing effects are applied.

    613.3. Within layers 2–6, apply effects from characteristic-defining abilities first (see rule 604.3), then all other effects in timestamp order (see rule 613.7). Note that dependency may alter the order in which effects are applied within a layer. (See rule 613.8.)

    The situation would have been different if Act of Treason had read something like

    Gain control of target creature. At the end of turn, return it to its owner’s control.

    because then that last part would be ‘later’ than, and overriding the effect of, your Donate.

    A related example: you cast Donate on one of your creatures and give it to Player C. Player A casts Act of Treason so it comes under Player A’s control; at the end of turn, it’s returned to Player C, not to you.



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